IPCC Facts and spin

Dear Friends,

The media has been buzzing about the IPCC's Himalayan glacier and Netherlands Sea level rise controversies.

The international climate panel headed by Dr. Rajendra Pachauri won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for a ground-breaking report on climate change. Several small errors have now surfaced in the 3,000-page report.

If you're wondering what the news reports mean for climate change, here are some pieces of information and answers to the questions in your mind.

What is IPCC?

The IPCC is not, as many people seem to think, a large organization. In fact, it has only 10 full-time staff in its secretariat at the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, plus a few staff in four technical support units that help the chairs of the three IPCC working groups and the national greenhouse gas inventories group. The actual work of the IPCC is done by unpaid volunteers – thousands of scientists at universities and research institutes around the world who contribute as authors or reviewers to the completion of the IPCC reports. A large fraction of the relevant scientific community is thus involved in the effort. The three working groups are:

Working Group 1 (WG1), which deals with the physical climate science basis, as assessed by the climatologists.

Working Group 2 (WG2), which deals with impacts of climate change on society and ecosystems, as assessed by social scientists, ecologists, etc.

Working Group 3 (WG3), which deals with mitigation options for limiting global warming, as assessed by energy experts, economists, etc.

The Controversies and the facts:

Himalayan glaciers: In a regional chapter on Asia in Volume 2, written by authors from the region, it was erroneously stated that 80% of Himalayan glacier area would very likely be gone by 2035.

The problem here is not that the IPCC’s glacier experts made an incorrect prediction. The problem is that a Working Group 2 chapter, instead of relying on the proper IPCC projections from their WG1 colleagues, cited an unreliable outside source in one place. Fixing this error involves deleting two sentences on page 493 of the Working Group 2 report.

Sea level in the Netherlands: The IPCC report states that “The Netherlands is an example of a country highly susceptible to both sea-level rise and river flooding because 55% of its territory is below sea level”. This sentence was provided by a Dutch government agency – the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, which has now published a correction stating that the sentence should have read “55 per cent of the Netherlands is at risk of flooding; 26 per cent of the country is below sea level, and 29 per cent is susceptible to river flooding”.

Needless to say, the actual number mentioned in the report has no bearing on any IPCC conclusions and has nothing to do with climate science, and it is questionable whether it should even be counted as an IPCC error.

Do the U.N. climate panel's errors mean there is no threat from climate change?

No, the dire threat from climate change is not in question. The panel's errors were only related to the intensity of climate change. There are in fact only two real mistakes that have been found so far and neither point to any change in the basic premise of human induced climate change. [ "U.N. climate panel admits Dutch sea level flaw," Reuters, 13 February 2010 http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE61C1V920100213 ]

In some media reports the impression has been given that even the fundamental results of climate change science are now in question, such as whether humans are in fact changing the climate, causing glacier melt, sea level rise and so on. The IPCC does not carry out primary research, and hence any mistakes in the IPCC reports do not imply that any climate research itself is wrong. A reference to a poor report or an editorial lapse by IPCC authors obviously does not undermine climate science. Doubting basic results of climate science based on the recent claims against the IPCC is particularly ironic since none of the real or supposed errors being discussed are even in the Working Group 1 report, where the climate science basis is laid out.

For over two decades, scientists have consistently found that climate change is happening, and it's caused by human activity. ["New proof that man has caused global warming," Times Online UK, 18 February 2009http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article516033.ece ]

Why is there so much furore about these errors?

To those familiar with the science and the IPCC’s work, the current media discussion is in large part simply absurd and surreal. Journalists who have never even peeked into the IPCC report are now outraged that one wrong number appears on page 493 of Volume 2.

Over the past 20 years, the U.N. climate panel has been attacked again and again by the fossil fuel industry and by politicians who are determined to discredit climate change science and continue on an unsustainable development pathway which would ensure dire consequences for this earth. ["The doubters do disservice to climate facts," The Globe and Mail, 18 February 2009http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/the-doubters-do-disservice-to-climate-facts/article1472224/ ]

Are the Himalayan glaciers melting or not?

In 2007, the U.N. climate panel reported that Himalayan glaciers might vanish by 2035. The specific year turned out to be based on a flawed study, and the panel has corrected the error.

["UN climate panel admits Dutch sea level flaw", Times of India/AFP, 15 February 2010 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/UN-climate-panel-admits-Dutch-sea-level-flaw/articleshow/5574581.cms]
The Himalayan glaciers are retreating, but the exact rate of retreat is still uncertain. India's Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh was one of the first to argue that the 2035 forecast was "not based on an iota of scientific evidence," but he confirms the Himalayan glaciers "are indeed receding and the rate is cause for great concern." ["U.N. panel re-examines Himalayan glacier thaw report," Reuters, 18 January 2010 http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60H3VE20100118 ]

Who will be impacted by climate change?

Everyone. Lesser developed countries and small island states will be hit hardest and fastest. ["Island states stake bold claim at UN climate talks," AFP, 11 December 2009 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i3BrJHqiKUM_tiAQ8EAQc_H_qEsg ]

But rich nations are not immune to the violent weather, drought, disease, famine, mass migrations, and wars that will be caused if we don't stop climate change. ["Pentagon review to address climate change for the first time," The Hill, January 30, 2010http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/78855-pentagon-review-to-address-climate-change-for-the-first-time ]

What is my personal call on climate change?

The science is clear. Climate change is real, is happening now and is caused by people. The solution is clean energy, smart use of our power and forest protection.

If enough of us take action, we can stop climate change.

Since lots of people are wondering about the media stories, please spread this information to your family, friends, classmates and to everyone who can strengthen the global climate movement.

Thanks a billion!

Disclaimer: The views expressed are my personal views and are not related to IYCN.